Consumers hear on the car radio, "Alan Greenspan has lowered interest rates!" and they think to themselves, "Alright! I'm glad I waited to refinance. I bet my rate is going to be REALLY low!"
While that seems logical, it's not always how the interest rate markets work. Bob Walters, chief economist at Intuit's (NASDAQ: INTU) Quicken Loans, the nation's leading online mortgage lender, offers consumers a few reasons why mortgage rates sometimes rise when Greenspan and the Fed lower rates:
- When the media says Greenspan lowered "rates," what they mean is that a very specific rate, called the Federal Funds rate, has been lowered. This is a rate at which large banks lend to one another, often for very short periods of time. Mortgage rates are often much longer term rates - up to 30 years.
- Longer term rates are very sensitive to expectations about inflation. If short term rates, like the ones the Federal Reserve controls, are falling, this can encourage borrowing and spending, which can actually cause inflation to rise. Longer term rates, like mortgage rates, often rise if concerns about inflation increase.
"This is exactly what happened after the last lowering of the Fed Funds rate," says Dan Gilbert, Quicken Loans CEO. "Mortgage rates actually rose due to concerns about inflation. In this scenario, consumers could lock in a mortgage for three or five years at an even lower rate and refinance later when longer term rates drop. This makes sense because most people do not stay in a home more than five years, and those who do can refinance later."
- Markets often are ahead of the Federal Reserve. Interest rates are determined every day in very active public markets. If those markets believe the economy is slowing, interest rates may fall as the markets anticipate that the Fed will soon lower short term rates. This happened in the last half of 2000 when mortgage rates began steadily dropping, even though the Fed left their short term rates unchanged. The opposite can happen as well. Mortgage rates can rise well ahead of the Fed increasing short term rates.
"It's almost impossible to accurately predict the future of something as complex as the U.S. economy," says Walters. "However, it is important that mortgage consumers understand some of these market dynamics. Sometimes a lack of understanding can cost them money."
To learn more about how today's market rates can impact buying power or refinancing options, mortgage consumers can visit the Home Purchase and Refinance Centers at www.quickenloans.com. Both contain educational information about the mortgage process, and useful calculators that can help consumers calculate the amount of home they can afford or the potential savings achieved by refinancing.
MEMO to Editors: Bob Walters and Daniel Gilbert are available for interview. Contact Elizabeth Jones at 734/805-7137 or via e-mail at Elizabeth_Jones@QuickenLoans.com
About Quicken Loans
Quicken Loans Inc., a leading provider of direct-to-consumer home loans on the Internet, offers mortgages in all 50 states. The company provides a wide variety of home financing options including conventional, government, alternative, home equity and jumbo loans.
Quicken Loans combines technology and high touch personal service to give consumers a convenient one-stop mortgage lending experience on the Internet. More than 700 experienced mortgage professionals at the Quicken Loans' Web/Call Center work directly with consumers throughout the entire process to help close their loans quickly. The Web site also educates and empowers consumers through timely interactive tools and information related to the home financing process. Quicken Loans is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Intuit Inc.